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!CO2effect/!Help
This website contains an archive of files for the Acorn Electron, BBC Micro, Acorn Archimedes, Commodore 16 and Commodore 64 computers, which Dominic Ford has rescued from his private collection of floppy disks and cassettes.
Some of these files were originally commercial releases in the 1980s and 1990s, but they are now widely available online. I assume that copyright over them is no longer being asserted. If you own the copyright and would like files to be removed, please contact me.
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***************************************************************************** !CO2effect Version 1.0a (DEMO ONLY version) 30th May 1994 ***************************************************************************** (c) 1994 Bandy Ridgwell Introduction ============ !CO2effect is a Global Warming simulation, which will model future 'greenhouse' gas (namely CO2, CH4, N2O, CFC-11, CFC-12 and HCFC-22) concentrations and mean global surface temerpature, from given current and future rates of 'greenhouse' gas emissions. Policy senarios for controlling or reducing the emissions of the various greenhouse gases from their major sources can be built up, and the simulation run to give the future atmospheric composition, and to predict the future mean surface temperature (globally and yearly averaged). Historical data back to 1750 is included so that future levels and trends can be compared with the past, and particularly with before the start of the Industrial Revolution. The main features include: * Prediction of mean global surface temperatures from three (currently) different simple models, scaled to fit the prediction of current GCMs (Global Circulation Models), or from a user-defined model. * Calculation of the future concentrations of the main "greenhouse" gases. * Historical data for gas concentration back to before the start of the Industrial Revolution (back to 1750). * Rates of emissions from all primary anthropogenic sources are individually fully adjustable. * 4 policy 'senarios' pre-loaded; including the latest IPCC (InterGovernmental Panel on Climate Change) "Buisness As Usual" (no additional action taken to reduce emissions) prediction for future emissions. * Total rates of emissions can be set independantly of their individual sources. * All graphs fully scalable; main graph may be drag-magnified. * Main simulation and emissions graphs can all be saved as draw files. * Emission parameters can be saved from and loaded into the application. * Emission parameters can be saved as a text file. * Acorn's Interactive help supported. ***** This demo version has had the rates of emissions feature cripled, ***** **** such that changes made to the various emissions sources will not be **** *************** made permanent and used by the simulation. ****************** ****** Additionally, no user-defineable model functunality is present. ****** **** This program is designed to ideally run under RISC OS 3.1, and looks *** ***** best a high resolution screen mode. However the program will run ***** *** adequately in a low res mode, and under RISC OS 2 the only difference *** ******* will be that the rotated text y-axis labels will be missing. ******** About the simulation ==================== Put very simply, the Earth's climate system works as follows: The Earth absorbs radiation from the Sun, mainly at the surface. This energy is then redistributed by the atmosphere and ocean and re-radiated to space at longer ('infrared') wavelengths. Some of the thermal radiation is absorbed by radiatively-active ('greenhouse') gases in the atmosphere, principally water vapoir, but also carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, the CFCs, ozone and other greenhouse gases. The absorbed energy is re- radiated in all directions, downwards as well as upwards such that the radiation that is eventially lost to space is from higher, colder levels in the atmosphere. The result is that the surface loses less heat to space than it would otherwise do in the absence of the greenhouse gases and consequently stays warmer than it would otherwise be. This phenomenon, which acts rather like a 'blanket' around the Earth, is known as the greenhouse effect. Without such a blanket, the average surface temperature would be well in excess of -10�C (the global everage surface temperature is about 15�C). All of the greenhouse gases except the man-made CFCs are natrually present in the atmosphere, so that global warming is about the 'enhancement' of the 'natural' greenhouse effect by the addition of greenhouse gases from anthropogenic sources (since the start of the Industrial Revolution). The greenhouse gases modelled in this simulation are (with currect (1990) contribution to the enhanced greenhouse effect (ie global warming)); CO2 - 61.2% CH4 - 17.1% N2O - 4.1% CFC-11 (CCl3F) - 2.5% CFC-12 (CCl2F2) - 5.7% HCFC-22 (CHClF2) - 3.5% The remaining 5.9% is due to changes in stratospheric water vapour comming about as an indirect effect of changes in methane concentration. This is not modeled in this version. The gas referred to as HCFC-22 in the simulation, is used as a surrogate for all halocarbon CFC-11 and CFC-12 substitutes. The simulation consists of two main parts; the calculation of the levels of emissions of the greenhouse gases from their various sources; and the calculation of the gas concentration levels these emissions will lead to, and thus the resulting mean surface temperature. 1. Emissions modelling ====================== The primary anthropogenic sources of the various greenhouse gases are as follows, (sources in parenthesies are not adjustable in this version): Gas Real source % importance v1.0a model source (by mass emissions) CO2 - energy 80% energy use, transport deforestation 17% deforestation, reforestation cement production 03% misc sources - cement production CH4 - energy production and use 26% energy use, transport enteric fermentation 24% agriculture - livestock (rice) 17% (remaining sources) animal wastes 7% agriculture - livestock landfills 11% misc sources - sewage & landfills biomass burning 8% deforestation domestic sewage 7% misc sources - sewage & landfills N2O - energy 9% energy use, transport fertilized soils 48% agriculture - fertilizers (land clearing) 17% (remaining sources) adipic acid production 11% misc sources - acid production nitric acid production 4% misc sources - acid production biomass burning 11% deforestation CFCs - the individual sources are not modelled. Overall production is adjustable, and all this production is assumed to find it's way into the atmosphere the same year. [The above figures are taken from the latest IPCC assessment] Future emissions may be adjusted in two differect ways; either by setting each source of the various greenhouse gases individually (some of the sources are common to more than one greenhouse gas, e.g. deforestation is responsible for the release of CO2, CH4 and N2O) in the various source windows; or by setting the total levels (by growth/reduction of from 1990 levels) of each greenhouse gas using the 'Set Emissions' window (e.g. the emissions of all greenhouse gases could be held at 1990 levels using this window). Thses windows are accessed from the emissions toolbar by clicking SELECT. Future changes in the various emisions sources or emissions levels are set in up to 5 phases (phase #0 is not adjustable (except in the 'Set Emisions' window). Values are 'phased in' over the time scale set (ie intermediate value are interpolated), except for percentage change values (e.g. growth in the number of vehicle miles travelled (VMT) in the transport window) which are kept constant at the set value for the duration of the phase. Phases can be set from 1 to 155 years (inclusive). Each source window works as follows; - Electricity Generation: Electricity is generated from a combination of 5 sources (coal, gas, oil, nuclear or renewables (including solar, wind, hydo, biomass and geothermal). Each source will produce a different quantity of greenhouse gases for each KWh of electricity produced; the ratio of these emissions are taken to be 57:24:42:9:1. These take into account all emissions arrising as a consequence of construnction, getting the fuel, operation and decomissionsing. For the four fundimentally thermal processes, the power stations can be forced to be of a Combined Heat and Power variety, where an equal amout of energy to the electricity generated, is assumed to be made available as heat (e.g. hot water). No allowances are made for future increase in generation efficiency. The graph will display either the percentage share of generation, or the make-up of the actual power (electrical) generated, depending on the status of the 'Absolute/Percentage Display' icon. - Energy Use Per Year (Excluding Transport): The amout of electrical energy generated and the total energy consumed per year may be set. The percentage of the remaining energy requirements met by renewables (biomass or solar-derived hydrogen fuel) as opposed to fossil fuels may also be set. Renewables are assumed to count for no emissions. - Transport: The rate of growth of the number of Vehicle Miles Travelled (the total number of miles travelled by all road vehicles) per year can be set. Cars account for about 72% of the total number of VMT. 'Vehicle efficiency' is taken to be the percentage of potential fuel energy which is made available for vehicle motion. 'Level of bio-fuels used' is the percentage of vehicle fuel that comes from non-fossil fuel (e.g. sugar cane derived ethanol, oil fractions from oil seed rape and potentially solar hydrogen in the future) sources, currently this is 45% for Brazil. 'Level or car sharing' is the average percentage passenger car load (ie 50% would be two people in a nominally 4-seater car). The graph will display either the number of VMT as a percentage of the VMT for 1990, or as an absolute value, depending on the status of the 'Absolute/Percentage Display' icon. - Halocarbon/Substitute Production/Use: The percentage balance of the different halocarbons and non-halocarbon substitutes used for current halocarbon uses can be set. These must add up to 100%. The total production (taken also to the the total emissions for that year) can also be set (in kilo-tons). - Deforestation/Reforestation: The area of forest cleared per year can be set. This forest is taken to be entirely tropical/sub-tropical (temperate deforestation is relatively insignificant). Emissions (CO2, CH4, N2O) associated with each hectare of cleared forestation are released that year. Reforestation takes carbon out of the atmosphere ('fixes'); this is assumed to take place over 25 years (amount absorbed declining linearly per year); the total quantity absorbed from the atmosphere being equal to half that released from an equivalent area of deforestation (which will almost always be a mature forest, with a much higher biomass per hectare). Reforestation can counter the effects of deforestation and lead to a net absorption of carbon from the atmosphere (the emissions for carbon will then be negative). - Agriculture: Livestock is defined here as cattle, horses, mules/asses, buffalo, camels, sheep, goats and pigs. 'Synthetic fertilizer use' is the total mass of artificial nitrogen-containing fertilizer (largely nitrate and ammonium fertilizer) produced and used each year. Typically around 3% of the nitrogen finds it's way into the atmosphere in the form of N2O. - Misc Sources: These three sources are as percentages relative to 1990 emission levels. Adipic acid production is largely for use in the making of Nylon 66. Nitric acid is used in the production of fertilizers. Once the parameters in the window have been set, click 'OK' (or 'Update' if the window has it) to make the application accept the new values, (otherwise any changed values will be lost when the window is closed). The main simulation and emssions windows will now be stared (*) to indicate that the emissions sources have been altered. The 'Update Emissions' icon now needs to be selected so that emissions for the years 1990-2150 can be calculated for each of the greenhouse gases. The main simulation and emssions windows will then be un-stared. The 'Set Emission Levels' window allows the total emissions of the 6 greenhouse gases to be set, independantly of their individual sources. The gases to have thier total emisisons set should be selected. Phase number #0 can in this window be set. Selecting either 'Set' or 'OK' will automaticall update the total emissions, so that it is unnecessary to click on the 'Update Emissions' icon. Complete sets of emissions source details can be saved as a parameter file, and subsequently loaded into the application again by dragging the file icon into any of the application's windows. Details of total emissions levels set using the 'Set Emissions' window are not saved. Built into the application are 4 ready setup future emissions source senarios which can be loaded up by clicking SELECT or ADJUST over their icons (the 4 numbered smoking chimneys), (the 'Update Emissions' icon will need to be clicked on to update the actual emissions). These senarios have been set up as follows; #1 Largely the IPCC prediction of future greenhouse gas emissions if no additional action is taken to limit them. The balance of electricity generation sources is my guess. #2 Made up - medium-high emissions. #3 Made up - medium-low emissions. #4 The energy consumption data, and balance of generation sources is from a World Bank assessment of a renewable-intensive and low consumption senario. CFCs and their current replacement (HCFCs) and phased out very rapidly, and replaced with non-halocarbon compounds. The rest is just made up for an extreme greenhouse gas avoidance policy. By clicking on any of the various greenhouse gas 'Emissions Windows' icons, a window will be opened for that greenhouse gas, displaying the level of emissions for that gas from 1990 onwards. They will each be opened in the same place, so that opening a second window will hide the first (so drag it somewhere else!). The window may be toggled between displaying a percentage scale relative to 1990 emissions levels, and an absolute scale by clicking on the 'Absolute/Percentage Display' icon. The y-axis scale may be set from the 'Percentage Of 1990 Levels' window (even whe the graph display is in absolute units, the scale is set here as a maximum and minimum percentage of 1990 levels). The time period displayed may be set from the 'Time Axis Display' window (any period strating from 1990 to any ate in the range 1995-2150). Clicking on the 'Close Emissions Windows' icon will cose any emissions windows currently open. Clicking with ADJUST on any of the following icons; Energy Use, Transport, Deforestation/Reforestation, Agriculture, Misc Sources or Remaining Sources will switch the emissions window to displaying theri respective greenhouse gas emissions solely from that set of sources (ie clicking ADJUST on the Deforestation/Reforestation will switch the CO2 emisions window to displaying carbon emissions solely from deforestation and reforestation processes). By clicking either SELECT or ADJUST on the 'Total Gas Emisisons' icon, or by clicking with ADJUST on an icon already selected by ADJUST, will switch the emissions window back to displaying total emissions (ie from all sources combined) again. x or y-axis grids can be displayed by clicking on and selecting the relevant grid icon (and made to disappear by clicking on and deselecting them again). 2. Modelling of atmospheric composition and mean surface temperature ==================================================================== As the main simulation is run; Each year a quantity of the various greenhouse gases (depending on how the emissions have been previously set) are added to the atmosphere. The quantities added are assumed to decay depending on the atmospheric half-lives of the gases (with a simple exponential in the cases of CH4, N2O, CFC-11, CFC-12 and HCFC-22, but with a more complicated decay in the case of CO2). The quantities remaining from that single years' emssions are calculated for each of the subsequent years up until the end time of the simulation, and added to the amount already in the atmosphere in each of those years. The radiative forcing for each of the greenhouse gases due to the quantity of that gas in the atmosphere over and above that for years prior to the Industrial Revolution is calculated. Radiative forcing is a measure of the increase in the trapping of outgoing terrestrial (infrared) radiation from the Earth's surface, due to a increase in the concentration of a greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. It is measured in Watts per square meter, and is equivalent to an additional (infrared) radiation source acting (downwards) on the tropospere. The mean surface temperature is then calculated by whatever model has been selected. Three simple ones have been provided (future versions of the application may have much more complicated ones); all are of the same form, and each has been simply scaled to fit the results of a GCM (Global Circulation Model), either a low, high or 'best' estimate. The effect of the heat capacity of the Earth's oceans has not been taken into account (which will act to smear out and delay global temperature changes). The running of the simulation is controlled by the group of icons in the top LH corner of the main simulation window; running from left to right all the icons are: PLAY - Starts the simulation running. PAUSE - Pauses (/continues) the simulation. STOP - Stops the simulation, (once it has been stopped it cannot be restarted without resetting). BLANK - Blanks (/unblanks) the plot, (useful if the plot is floodfilled, as this takes quite some time to redraw if windows are moved from infrount of it). RESET - Resets the simulation; this may be done at any time. SPEED - Makes the simulation run normal speed (fast!) or slowely (one year every ten seconds). (EMPTY) TIME AXIS DIAPLY PARAMETERS - Opens window. Sets the time period to be displayed (any period between 1750 and 2150 inclusive), and whether the time axis grid is on or off. The max time values the simulation is started with, is the time the simulation will calculate up until. LH Y-AXIS DISPLAY PARAMETERS - Opens window. Sets the max and min values on the LH y-axis, and whether the LH y-axis grid is on or off. Sets the colour of the plot, and also the plot size. RH Y-AXIS DISPLAY PARAMETERS - Opens window. Sets the max and min values on the RH y-axis, and whether the RH y-axis grid is on or off. Sets the colour of the plot, and also the plot size. CONFIGURATION PARAMETERS - Opens window. Parameters for the configuration of the plot display. The various options are as follows: Plot fill: The plots may be either flood filled (solid colour under each plot) if selected, or not. Plot shape: The plots may be displayed as a point, a cross or as a continuous line. The point and cross size are determined by the 'Plot Size' parameter in the LH and RH y axis display paramater windows. y-axis scale: The plots may be display as absolute values, or as excess values (Global Warming is usually talked about in terms of excess values over pre-Industrial Revolution (say 1750) values, or excess values over 1990 values. LH y-axis display: The LH y-axis may be set to display either temperature or radiative forcing. RH y-axis display: The RH y-axis may be set to display either CO2, CH4 N2O or CFCs. Additionally the CFCs may be displayed seperately ('All gases?' selected) or combined (ie total CFCs). ALL/SINGLE - The display may be toggled quickly between displaying all gases floodfilled, or just one (CO2) not foodfilled. COLOURS - Opens window. The display colours for the 6 different gases and combined CFCs may be set. When the plot is displayed floodfilled, cross or line displays (in addition to the floodfill) are displayed in black. (EMPTY) EMISSIONS TOOLBAR - Opens the Emissions Toolbar (described above). Clicking with SELECT will close the main simulation window. Clicking with ADJUST will leave it open. TEMPERATURE MODEL - Opens window. For selecting which temperature model to use. In this version the user-definable one is not selectable. (EMPTY) QUICK SAVE - Saves the main simulation graph using the last saved draw file path and filename. HELP - Loads up Acorn's Interactive Help (RISC OS versions 3.00/3.10/3.11). Selected areas of the main graph may be magnified by dragging out a box encompasing that area (move the mouse with SELECT or ADJUST held down). No further magnification is allowed by this means when a certain limit has been reached. Additionally, very small dragged boxes are ignored. If the main simulation window or one of the emissions windows have the input focus, then that graph may be saved by pressing F3 (providing that a save path has previously been provided, or a draw file has previously been saved). Further Information =================== Climate Change; The IPCC Scientific Assessment. CUP 1990. ISBN 0 521 40360 X Global Warming; The Greenpeace Report. OUP 1990. ISBN 0 192 86119 0 A wide variety of information on Climate Change, including material suitable for schools use can be obtained from: Global Climate Change Information Programme Atmospheric Research and Information Centre, Department of Environmental and Geographical Sciences, Manchester Metropolitan University, Chester Street, Manchester M1 5GD Tel: (061) 247 1593 Fax: (061) 247 6332 Copyright Notice ================ !CO2effect is (c) 1994 Bandy Ridgwell, all rights reserved. This software is supplied "as is"; no warranty, express or implied of its fitness for any particular purpose is given. In no circumstances shall the author be liable for any damage, loss of profits, or any indirect or consequential loss arising out of the use of this software. ******************** To obtain the full working version ********************* Send a cheque for �10-00 made payable to "Andy Ridgwell" to: 390 Milton Road, Cambridge CB4 1SU For this you will recieve the latest full working version of !CO2effect, together with full (uncrunched and commented) versions of the source code and a printed manual (of sorts) detailing how exactly to use the program, a more detailed explanation of the greenhouse effect and how it is modeled, the assumptions behind the simulation model and how everything is calculated. I will also notify you of any updates (which will cost only enough to cover postage and packing and the disk). ***************************************************************************** The author can be contacted at; 390 Milton Road, Cambridge CB4 1SU The author may be plied with drinks at; The Ancient Druids, Cambridge Bandy Ridgwell 30/05/94
00000000 2a 2a 2a 2a 2a 2a 2a 2a 2a 2a 2a 2a 2a 2a 2a 2a |****************| * 00000040 2a 2a 2a 2a 2a 2a 2a 2a 2a 2a 2a 2a 2a 0a 21 43 |*************.!C| 00000050 4f 32 65 66 66 65 63 74 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 |O2effect | 00000060 20 20 20 56 65 72 73 69 6f 6e 20 31 2e 30 61 20 | Version 1.0a | 00000070 28 44 45 4d 4f 20 4f 4e 4c 59 20 76 65 72 73 69 |(DEMO ONLY versi| 00000080 6f 6e 29 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 33 30 |on) 30| 00000090 74 68 20 4d 61 79 20 31 39 39 34 0a 2a 2a 2a 2a |th May 1994.****| 000000a0 2a 2a 2a 2a 2a 2a 2a 2a 2a 2a 2a 2a 2a 2a 2a 2a |****************| * 000000e0 2a 2a 2a 2a 2a 2a 2a 2a 2a 0a 0a 20 20 20 20 20 |*********.. | 000000f0 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 | | 00000100 20 20 20 20 28 63 29 20 31 39 39 34 20 42 61 6e | (c) 1994 Ban| 00000110 64 79 20 52 69 64 67 77 65 6c 6c 0a 0a 0a 0a 20 |dy Ridgwell.... | 00000120 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 | | 00000130 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 49 6e 74 | Int| 00000140 72 6f 64 75 63 74 69 6f 6e 0a 20 20 20 20 20 20 |roduction. | 00000150 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 | | 00000160 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 3d 3d 3d 3d 3d 3d 3d 3d | ========| 00000170 3d 3d 3d 3d 0a 0a 0a 21 43 4f 32 65 66 66 65 63 |====...!CO2effec| 00000180 74 20 69 73 20 61 20 47 6c 6f 62 61 6c 20 57 61 |t is a Global Wa| 00000190 72 6d 69 6e 67 20 73 69 6d 75 6c 61 74 69 6f 6e |rming simulation| 000001a0 2c 20 77 68 69 63 68 20 77 69 6c 6c 20 6d 6f 64 |, which will mod| 000001b0 65 6c 20 66 75 74 75 72 65 20 0a 27 67 72 65 65 |el future .'gree| 000001c0 6e 68 6f 75 73 65 27 20 67 61 73 20 28 6e 61 6d |nhouse' gas (nam| 000001d0 65 6c 79 20 43 4f 32 2c 20 43 48 34 2c 20 4e 32 |ely CO2, CH4, N2| 000001e0 4f 2c 20 43 46 43 2d 31 31 2c 20 43 46 43 2d 31 |O, CFC-11, CFC-1| 000001f0 32 20 61 6e 64 20 48 43 46 43 2d 32 32 29 20 0a |2 and HCFC-22) .| 00000200 63 6f 6e 63 65 6e 74 72 61 74 69 6f 6e 73 20 61 |concentrations a| 00000210 6e 64 20 6d 65 61 6e 20 67 6c 6f 62 61 6c 20 73 |nd mean global s| 00000220 75 72 66 61 63 65 20 74 65 6d 65 72 70 61 74 75 |urface temerpatu| 00000230 72 65 2c 20 66 72 6f 6d 20 67 69 76 65 6e 20 63 |re, from given c| 00000240 75 72 72 65 6e 74 20 61 6e 64 20 0a 66 75 74 75 |urrent and .futu| 00000250 72 65 20 72 61 74 65 73 20 6f 66 20 27 67 72 65 |re rates of 'gre| 00000260 65 6e 68 6f 75 73 65 27 20 67 61 73 20 65 6d 69 |enhouse' gas emi| 00000270 73 73 69 6f 6e 73 2e 20 20 50 6f 6c 69 63 79 20 |ssions. Policy | 00000280 73 65 6e 61 72 69 6f 73 20 66 6f 72 20 63 6f 6e |senarios for con| 00000290 74 72 6f 6c 6c 69 6e 67 20 0a 6f 72 20 72 65 64 |trolling .or red| 000002a0 75 63 69 6e 67 20 74 68 65 20 65 6d 69 73 73 69 |ucing the emissi| 000002b0 6f 6e 73 20 6f 66 20 74 68 65 20 76 61 72 69 6f |ons of the vario| 000002c0 75 73 20 67 72 65 65 6e 68 6f 75 73 65 20 67 61 |us greenhouse ga| 000002d0 73 65 73 20 66 72 6f 6d 20 74 68 65 69 72 20 6d |ses from their m| 000002e0 61 6a 6f 72 20 0a 73 6f 75 72 63 65 73 20 63 61 |ajor .sources ca| 000002f0 6e 20 62 65 20 62 75 69 6c 74 20 75 70 2c 20 61 |n be built up, a| 00000300 6e 64 20 74 68 65 20 73 69 6d 75 6c 61 74 69 6f |nd the simulatio| 00000310 6e 20 72 75 6e 20 74 6f 20 67 69 76 65 20 74 68 |n run to give th| 00000320 65 20 66 75 74 75 72 65 20 0a 61 74 6d 6f 73 70 |e future .atmosp| 00000330 68 65 72 69 63 20 63 6f 6d 70 6f 73 69 74 69 6f |heric compositio| 00000340 6e 2c 20 61 6e 64 20 74 6f 20 70 72 65 64 69 63 |n, and to predic| 00000350 74 20 74 68 65 20 66 75 74 75 72 65 20 6d 65 61 |t the future mea| 00000360 6e 20 73 75 72 66 61 63 65 20 74 65 6d 70 65 72 |n surface temper| 00000370 61 74 75 72 65 20 0a 28 67 6c 6f 62 61 6c 6c 79 |ature .(globally| 00000380 20 61 6e 64 20 79 65 61 72 6c 79 20 61 76 65 72 | and yearly aver| 00000390 61 67 65 64 29 2e 20 20 48 69 73 74 6f 72 69 63 |aged). Historic| 000003a0 61 6c 20 64 61 74 61 20 62 61 63 6b 20 74 6f 20 |al data back to | 000003b0 31 37 35 30 20 69 73 20 69 6e 63 6c 75 64 65 64 |1750 is included| 000003c0 20 73 6f 20 0a 74 68 61 74 20 66 75 74 75 72 65 | so .that future| 000003d0 20 6c 65 76 65 6c 73 20 61 6e 64 20 74 72 65 6e | levels and tren| 000003e0 64 73 20 63 61 6e 20 62 65 20 63 6f 6d 70 61 72 |ds can be compar| 000003f0 65 64 20 77 69 74 68 20 74 68 65 20 70 61 73 74 |ed with the past| 00000400 2c 20 61 6e 64 20 0a 70 61 72 74 69 63 75 6c 61 |, and .particula| 00000410 72 6c 79 20 77 69 74 68 20 62 65 66 6f 72 65 20 |rly with before | 00000420 74 68 65 20 73 74 61 72 74 20 6f 66 20 74 68 65 |the start of the| 00000430 20 49 6e 64 75 73 74 72 69 61 6c 20 52 65 76 6f | Industrial Revo| 00000440 6c 75 74 69 6f 6e 2e 0a 0a 0a 54 68 65 20 6d 61 |lution....The ma| 00000450 69 6e 20 66 65 61 74 75 72 65 73 20 69 6e 63 6c |in features incl| 00000460 75 64 65 3a 0a 0a 20 20 20 20 20 2a 20 50 72 65 |ude:.. * Pre| 00000470 64 69 63 74 69 6f 6e 20 6f 66 20 6d 65 61 6e 20 |diction of mean | 00000480 67 6c 6f 62 61 6c 20 73 75 72 66 61 63 65 20 74 |global surface t| 00000490 65 6d 70 65 72 61 74 75 72 65 73 20 66 72 6f 6d |emperatures from| 000004a0 20 74 68 72 65 65 20 28 63 75 72 72 65 6e 74 6c | three (currentl| 000004b0 79 29 20 0a 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 64 69 66 66 65 |y) . diffe| 000004c0 72 65 6e 74 20 73 69 6d 70 6c 65 20 6d 6f 64 65 |rent simple mode| 000004d0 6c 73 2c 20 73 63 61 6c 65 64 20 74 6f 20 66 69 |ls, scaled to fi| 000004e0 74 20 74 68 65 20 70 72 65 64 69 63 74 69 6f 6e |t the prediction| 000004f0 20 6f 66 20 63 75 72 72 65 6e 74 20 47 43 4d 73 | of current GCMs| 00000500 0a 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 28 47 6c 6f 62 61 6c 20 |. (Global | 00000510 43 69 72 63 75 6c 61 74 69 6f 6e 20 4d 6f 64 65 |Circulation Mode| 00000520 6c 73 29 2c 20 6f 72 20 66 72 6f 6d 20 61 20 75 |ls), or from a u| 00000530 73 65 72 2d 64 65 66 69 6e 65 64 20 6d 6f 64 65 |ser-defined mode| 00000540 6c 2e 0a 20 20 20 20 20 2a 20 43 61 6c 63 75 6c |l.. * Calcul| 00000550 61 74 69 6f 6e 20 6f 66 20 74 68 65 20 66 75 74 |ation of the fut| 00000560 75 72 65 20 63 6f 6e 63 65 6e 74 72 61 74 69 6f |ure concentratio| 00000570 6e 73 20 6f 66 20 74 68 65 20 6d 61 69 6e 20 22 |ns of the main "| 00000580 67 72 65 65 6e 68 6f 75 73 65 22 20 0a 20 20 20 |greenhouse" . | 00000590 20 20 20 20 67 61 73 65 73 2e 0a 20 20 20 20 20 | gases.. | 000005a0 2a 20 48 69 73 74 6f 72 69 63 61 6c 20 64 61 74 |* Historical dat| 000005b0 61 20 66 6f 72 20 67 61 73 20 63 6f 6e 63 65 6e |a for gas concen| 000005c0 74 72 61 74 69 6f 6e 20 62 61 63 6b 20 74 6f 20 |tration back to | 000005d0 62 65 66 6f 72 65 20 74 68 65 20 73 74 61 72 74 |before the start| 000005e0 20 6f 66 20 74 68 65 0a 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 49 | of the. I| 000005f0 6e 64 75 73 74 72 69 61 6c 20 52 65 76 6f 6c 75 |ndustrial Revolu| 00000600 74 69 6f 6e 20 28 62 61 63 6b 20 74 6f 20 31 37 |tion (back to 17| 00000610 35 30 29 2e 0a 20 20 20 20 20 2a 20 52 61 74 65 |50).. * Rate| 00000620 73 20 6f 66 20 65 6d 69 73 73 69 6f 6e 73 20 66 |s of emissions f| 00000630 72 6f 6d 20 61 6c 6c 20 70 72 69 6d 61 72 79 20 |rom all primary | 00000640 61 6e 74 68 72 6f 70 6f 67 65 6e 69 63 20 73 6f |anthropogenic so| 00000650 75 72 63 65 73 20 61 72 65 20 0a 20 20 20 20 20 |urces are . | 00000660 20 20 69 6e 64 69 76 69 64 75 61 6c 6c 79 20 66 | individually f| 00000670 75 6c 6c 79 20 61 64 6a 75 73 74 61 62 6c 65 2e |ully adjustable.| 00000680 0a 20 20 20 20 20 2a 20 34 20 70 6f 6c 69 63 79 |. * 4 policy| 00000690 20 27 73 65 6e 61 72 69 6f 73 27 20 70 72 65 2d | 'senarios' pre-| 000006a0 6c 6f 61 64 65 64 3b 20 69 6e 63 6c 75 64 69 6e |loaded; includin| 000006b0 67 20 74 68 65 20 6c 61 74 65 73 74 20 49 50 43 |g the latest IPC| 000006c0 43 20 0a 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 28 49 6e 74 65 72 |C . 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CO2 | 00001210 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 2d 20 20 36 31 2e 32 25 | - 61.2%| 00001220 0a 20 20 43 48 34 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 |. CH4 | 00001230 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 2d 20 20 31 37 2e 31 25 0a | - 17.1%.| 00001240 20 20 4e 32 4f 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 | N2O | 00001250 20 20 20 20 20 20 2d 20 20 20 34 2e 31 25 0a 20 | - 4.1%. | 00001260 20 43 46 43 2d 31 31 20 20 28 43 43 6c 33 46 29 | CFC-11 (CCl3F)| 00001270 20 20 20 20 20 2d 20 20 20 32 2e 35 25 0a 20 20 | - 2.5%. | 00001280 43 46 43 2d 31 32 20 20 28 43 43 6c 32 46 32 29 |CFC-12 (CCl2F2)| 00001290 20 20 20 20 2d 20 20 20 35 2e 37 25 0a 20 20 48 | - 5.7%. 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ISBN 0| 00005670 20 35 32 31 20 34 30 33 36 30 20 58 0a 47 6c 6f | 521 40360 X.Glo| 00005680 62 61 6c 20 57 61 72 6d 69 6e 67 3b 20 54 68 65 |bal Warming; The| 00005690 20 47 72 65 65 6e 70 65 61 63 65 20 52 65 70 6f | Greenpeace Repo| 000056a0 72 74 2e 20 4f 55 50 20 31 39 39 30 2e 20 49 53 |rt. OUP 1990. IS| 000056b0 42 4e 20 30 20 31 39 32 20 38 36 31 31 39 20 30 |BN 0 192 86119 0| 000056c0 0a 0a 0a 41 20 77 69 64 65 20 76 61 72 69 65 74 |...A wide variet| 000056d0 79 20 6f 66 20 69 6e 66 6f 72 6d 61 74 69 6f 6e |y of information| 000056e0 20 6f 6e 20 43 6c 69 6d 61 74 65 20 43 68 61 6e | on Climate Chan| 000056f0 67 65 2c 20 69 6e 63 6c 75 64 69 6e 67 20 6d 61 |ge, including ma| 00005700 74 65 72 69 61 6c 20 73 75 69 74 61 62 6c 65 20 |terial suitable | 00005710 0a 66 6f 72 20 73 63 68 6f 6f 6c 73 20 75 73 65 |.for schools use| 00005720 20 63 61 6e 20 62 65 20 6f 62 74 61 69 6e 65 64 | can be obtained| 00005730 20 66 72 6f 6d 3a 0a 20 20 0a 20 20 47 6c 6f 62 | from:. . 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